p The socialist revolution combines the operation of the most diverse factors: objective factors stemming from the development of the economic, social and political contradictions of the capitalist system; and subjective factors embodied in the conscious revolutionary activity of the masses and their communist vanguard. The objective prerequisites of the revolution mature according to laws beyond the control of man. In this sense “revolution can never be forecast; it cannot be foretold; it comes of itself”.  [102•*  However, by analysing the socio-economic aspects of social development scientifically it is possible, in many ways, to foresee the basic 103 features and trends of the future revolution, its motive forces and the forms of the revolutionary struggle. This analysis provides the foundation for the strategy and tactics of the Communist and Workers’ parties. Disregard of the conditions in which the revolutionary movement develops and of historical laws dooms the revolution to defeat.

p For an analysis of the economic conditions of any social revolution the point of departure is the Marxist-Leninist tenet that the material prerequisites for the new society are created in the depths of the old society. This conclusion holds true for socialism as well. Lenin regarded state- monopoly capitalism as the full material prerequisite of socialism. The larger the economic basis of capitalism and the fuller and deeper the process of socialisation of labour, the simpler, in a certain sense, becomes the process of socialist transformation, the less energy and means are required from the socialist power for the building of the material and technical basis of the new society, and the easier, clearer and more well-regulated becomes the creation of socialist relations of production and the building of the socialist superstructure consolidating these relations.

p On the other hand, during the development of statemonopoly capitalism, the monopolies acquire unprecedented power. In the developed countries about 70-80 per cent of the national industry is in their hands and they control public and state institutions and economic and social policy.

p Lenin made a brilliant analysis of imperialism, showing that socialism is the ultimate outcome of its further development. He condemned the assessment of imperialism offered by Karl Kautsky, who considered that “the time is not too far off when these magnates of capital will unite on a world scale in a single world trust, substituting an internationally united finance capital for the competition and struggle between sums of finance capital nationally isolated”.  [103•* 

p Lenin noted that “with Kautsky, in particular, his clear break with Marxism has ... taken the form of a dream of ‘peaceful’ capitalism”.  [103•**  “There is no doubt,” he wrote, “that the trend of development is towards a single world trust absorbing all enterprises without exception and all 104 states without exception. But this development proceeds in such circumstances, at such a pace, through such contradictions, conflicts and upheavals—not only economic but political, national, etc.—that inevitably imperialism will burst and capitalism will be transformed into its opposite long before one world trust materialises, before the ’ultra- imperialist’, world-wide amalgamation of national finance capitals takes place.”  [104•* 

p The concrete factors of the development of the objective material prerequisites of socialism determine the distinctive features of the objective and subjective conditions of the revolution. There is a very clear-cut dependence between the development level of the material basis and the forms of the revolutionary transformations. A revolutionary situation may arise even when the material prerequisites of socialism have not completely matured. To some extent the material prerequisites of the socialist revolution influence the demands, slogans and tactics of the revolutionary forces and the forms of the class alliances.

p The material and organisational prerequisites of the socialist revolution taking shape within the framework of capitalism fall into the following main groups:

p 1. The material framework of the new economic management, and the concentration and centralisation of the means of production allowing for a regulated process of labour. In the economically developed capitalist countries the concentration and monopolisation of production expressing the social nature of labour have reached an exceedingly high level.  [104•**  However, the fruits of socialised labour are 105 enjoyed by the capitalist monopolies. Under capitalism the huge material and technical basis is fettered by private ownership and used to preserve the supremacy of the relatively small exploiting class and protect the imperialist system.

p As Gus Hall, General Secretary of the Communist Party of the USA, pointed out, in the United States of America, which is the most highly developed capitalist country, the “financial-industrial capitalist complex, interlocked with the powers of the state machinery at its service, with the new scientific breakthroughs at its command, organised and controlled through monopolies and ever greater monopolies known as conglomerates, has developed into history’s most brutal, inhuman, fiendishly efficient, cold-blooded exploiter and devourer of resources—both nature’s and man’s”.  [105•* 

p 2. The proletariat as the proponent of the social character of labour. The proletarian mass, i.e., the overwhelming majority of wage earners deprived of the means of production, are prepared, by the nature of production, for the establishment of socialist relations of production. In the developed capitalist countries the number of factory and office workers grows steadily. At the close of the 1960s they comprised 75 per cent of the population in Western Europe (93 per cent in Britain, 80 per cent in Denmark, 65 per cent in Italy), 85 per cent in the USA, 56 per cent in Japan, and so forth.

p 3. Elements of administration and scientific organisation of production expressed in the activity of the technical intelligentsia and the institutions directing and controlling the process of production. In the drive to gain the upper hand in the competitive struggle the monopoly associations are compelled to plan production and regulate technological and managerial processes in accordance with scientific data. This is forced on them by the existence of socialist states 106 and the achievements of these states in economic development and in the utilisation of scientific data. The measures of regulation applied by the monopolies, if turned over to the working class, could be used to uphold the interests of the people and not of the monopolies.

p 4. Workers’ organisations which could serve as the nucleus of management under socialism. Under developed capitalism there are numerous well-organised trade unions, co-operatives and other labour organisations, which are linked on many issues with the organisation and management of production. In the developed capitalist countries the trade unions unite over 70 million or upwards of 35 per cent of all factory and office workers. Workers’ organisations train cadres with a good understanding of production problems and able to protect the interests of the workers in various spheres.  [106•*  Thanks to the struggle of the working class, in many countries the trade unions have won some rights in controlling factory managements. True, this control concerns only technological, organisational, and sanitary aspects of production and has nowhere affected private ownership. But participation in control helps the workers to get a clearer picture of the vices of capitalist management and see the ways of development of the socialist economy.

p The scientific and technological revolution and the expansion of state-monopoly capitalism expedite the growth of these elements and enhance their significance in production. In the developed countries the number of true proletarians, i.e., above all industrial workers, is relatively or even absolutely diminishing. As a whole, however, the number of wage earners, whose condition is steadily equalising, is growing. Economically and socially office workers are drawing closer to the proletariat and adopting its forms of struggle.  [106•**  The working people, whose interests diverge 107 fundamentally from those of the capitalist class, represent the social force which is united by the aspiration to abolish capitalist relations of production and put socialist reforms into effect.

p In this connection the views of the Right and “Left” revisionists are quite unfounded. The Right revisionists argue that the maturity of the material and technical basis is the principal condition for socialist reforms and that, therefore, these reforms can be carried out gradually on the basis of capitalism’s “integration” with socialism. The “Lefts” say that the maturity of material prerequisites is quite sufficient grounds for starting a revolution at any time without taking other essential conditions into account.

p Marxists-Leninists consider that although the maturity of the material and technical conditions for socialism is of tremendous significance to the struggle for socialist reforms it is not a sufficient or the only prerequisite for the revolution. For the socialist revolution to be successful the objective socio-political factor must mature and the revolutionary masses must achieve a high level of political consciousness. No matter how mature the material prerequisites are, the socialist revolution will not take place without the existence of the above-mentioned factors. This is borne out by the present situation in the developed capitalist countries.

p On the other hand, it would be wrong to consider that the creation of all the material prerequisites of socialism in the capitalist system is an indispensable condition for the socialist revolution in every situation and in every country.  [107•*  The fact that revolutionary reforms can follow another course has been demonstrated by the Great October Socialist Revolution. The revolution triumphed when the material, cultural and social prerequisites of socialism had not attained full maturity. Criticising the stereotyped thinking of the 108 “heroes" of the Second International, who held that the victory of the working people in Russia was “illegitimate”, Lenin wrote in the article “Our Revolution": “What if the complete hopelessness of the situation, by stimulating the efforts of the workers and peasants tenfold, offered us the opportunity to create the fundamental requisites of civilisation in a different way from that of the West European countries? Has that altered the general line of development of world history? Has that altered the basic relations between the basic classes of all the countries that are being, or have been, drawn into the general course of world history?”  [108•* 

p The conditions for the socialist revolution may thus arise where a certain middle level of economic development has been attained. If the revolutionaries had linked the transition to socialist transformations and the change of power solely with the existence of an economy that had fully matured for socialism they would have doomed the peoples of many countries to passive waiting and fettered their revolutionary energy.

p Under present-day conditions, when the world revolutionary movement is receiving considerable material, technical and other assistance from the socialist countries, the fallacy of this standpoint is transparently clear. Today, more than ever before, the possibility exists of starting revolutionary changes before the building of the material foundation of socialism is completed. This is proved by the experience of many countries that have embarked on socialist development.

p The different ways of approaching the socialist revolution in the different countries depend on the specific economic situation in these countries. However, the present-day inter-relation and inter-dependence of the economic development of the different capitalist countries do not make it any less important to take the situation in each country into account in the context of the situation in the world economy as a whole.

p Suffice it to mention some examples of recent years. The monopolists of Britain, whose economy is experiencing immense difficulties, receive considerable support from the imperialist circles of the USA and the Federal Republic of 109 Germany. Although there are many contradictions between France and other Western countries, the latter jointly helped her to avoid economic collapse when a crisis hit the franc. Lastly, the major Western powers are acting in concert to save the international currency system from breaking down. International and national banks and monopolies invariably hasten to the assistance of a partner, whose position evokes alarm due to the aggravation of the class struggle and to pressure from the working class. “Under conditions where the struggle between the two world systems is becoming sharper,” states the Document of the 1969 Meeting, “the capitalist powers seek, despite the growing contradictions dividing them, to unite their efforts to uphold and strengthen the system of exploitation and oppression and regain the positions they have lost.”  [109•* 

p Of course, the internationalisation of the economy of the capitalist countries is not an unimpeded process. It encounters resistance from the national bourgeoisie, which relies on international state-monopoly capitalism in its struggle against the world socialist system and in face of the mounting revolutionary movement in the world and the expansion of the national liberation movement.

p A deep-going socio-political crisis, i.e., a revolutionary situation, is the key objective factor of the socialist revolution. The tactics of the revolutionary movement are founded on the need to make a correct assessment of the situation and the features of the development of this crisis and to utilise it. All socialist revolutions began in a revolutionary situation.

p Lenin pinpointed three cardinal indications of a revolutionary situation: “(1) when it is impossible for the ruling classes to maintain their rule without any change; when there is a crisis, in one form or another, among the ’upper classes’, a crisis in the policy of the ruling class, leading to a fissure through which the discontent and indignation of the oppressed classes burst forth. For a revolution to take place, it is usually insufficient for ’the lower classes not to want’ to live in the old way; it is also necessary that ’the upper classes should be unable’ to live in the old way; (2) when the suffering and want of the oppressed classes have grown more acute than usual; (3) when, as a consequence 110 of the above causes, there is a considerable increase in the activity of the masses, who uncomplainingly allow themselves to be robbed in ‘peace-time’, but, in turbulent times, are drawn both by all the circumstances of the crisis and by the ’upper classes’ themselves into independent historical action.”  [110•* 

p This proposition holds good today. From time to time a situation arises in individual capitalist countries which is more or less reminiscent of or, in fact, is a revolutionary situation. The specific way in which such a situation manifests itself in each individual case differs in many respects from the revolutionary situation that took shape, for instance, in Russia in October 1917. In the past, a revolutionary situation usually stemmed from grave economic crises, bloody repressions by the ruling classes, wars or famine. The conditions giving rise to a revolutionary situation today have broadened out considerably and become much more diverse. This is due to the complex nature of the socio- political relations and the emergence of new contradictions affecting new strata of society. Capitalism is having more and more frequent recourse to repressions, reactionary measures and the further curtailment of democracy.

p The tactics employed by capitalism today continue to be characterised by concessions to the working people with the aim of muffling their dissatisfaction and diverting them from politics. But this does not eradicate the deep-rooted contradictions intrinsic to capitalist society. The constant threat of war, the deprivation of sovereignty and the threat of fascism are the serious factors of the day-to-day reality of many capitalist countries and they aggravate the political situation in these countries and lead to clashes between the working people and the authorities, to conflicts that may give rise to a revolutionary situation. The threat of a resurgence of fascism was precisely what, above all, caused the revolutionary crisis in Greece in the summer and autumn of 1965. In that country the popular movement reached an unprecedented scale. It mounted as a result of the exacerbation and intertwining of the crises in the “upper” and “lower” strata. The mass movement unfolded under slogans 111 calling for a struggle against fascism and for the termination of the American occupation of the country.

p Even in the most highly developed capitalist countries many of the social gains of the people remain unstable. The condition of large groups of the population continues to be characterised by utterly exhausting exploitation and an inadequate standard of living. As in past decades, social problems such as unemployment, famine, and poverty remain unresolved in many countries. The struggle round these problems is likewise fraught with numerous complications and sometimes leads to major social conflicts, during which the bourgeoisie resorts to the most diverse means to avert a revolutionary outburst.

p The fact that in some capitalist countries no sharp economic crises have been witnessed in recent years and a section of the workers enjoy a relatively high standard of living does not mean that where these countries are concerned the second indication of a revolutionary situation pinpointed by Lenin is losing its significance. A Marxist analysis of the conditions of life of the working people in the capitalist countries shows that exploitation has not diminished, that only its forms have been changed. While formerly exploitation consumed nearly all of the worker’s physical strength, now it places an additional stress on man’s nervous system.

p To assess the present political situation correctly it is important to take the diversity of economic, social, military and moral factors into account. This is the only way correctly to determine the ways of changing every concrete situation. Consequently, one cannot be a revolutionary without closely analysing and carefully weighing all the circumstances and conditions of the class struggle.

p The fraternal parties are enlarging on the question of the revolutionary situation in the specific conditions obtaining in their countries. In some developed capitalist countries (the USA, France) the upswing of the working-class movement has brought Leftist elements round to the hasty conclusion that a revolutionary situation has matured. The Communists are, therefore, devoting much of their attention to analysing the actual situation and exposing Leftist adventurism. At the 1969 Meeting Waldeck Rochet noted that the “Left-wing deviation, which is characteristic of the 112 groupings belonging to Maoism and Trotskyism, is wishful thinking which turns impatience into a strategy".  [112•* 

p There is a school of thought which argues that under present-day enlargement of the social basis of the revolution a revolutionary situation may not acquire sharp forms. Actually, this notion of a calm, quiet and inconspicuous revolutionary situation, which has not been borne out by the experience of history, can only lead to accepting a nonrevolutionary state for a revolutionary situation. Any attempt to outdistance the course of events and accomplish a revolution in the absence of a revolutionary situation dooms the working people to defeat.

p Some people interpret Lenin’s teaching of the revolution much too broadly and even identify it with the subjective factor. Such an interpretation can hardly be accepted. The masses and the party’s policy, naturally, play their role in creating a revolutionary situation. But the subjective factor of revolution can only be the purposeful activity of the masses and of their vanguard, the revolutionary party of the working class. Without this a revolutionary situation cannot be turned into a revolution.

p Another school of thought makes the revolution dependent on the subjective factor’s level of maturity. It is hardly worth complicating the very concept of the subjective factor. It is much more simple to regard an immature subjective factor as no subjective factor at all. Lenin put it quite plainly when he said that the subjective factor is the ability of the revolutionary class to take revolutionary mass action.  [112•** 

The objective factor of the revolution, i.e., the revolutionary situation, is thus a complex of issues concerning the material and spiritual life of society—from the level of development of specific branches of technology to the psychology of the various social groups. The prospects for a socialist revolution cannot be correctly assessed unless all social processes and the changes in the political situation and in the conditions of the development of capitalism and the working-class movement are constantly kept within the field of vision.